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Damian C. Clarke

The May 2012 Copenhagen Consensus (CC) set itself the challenge of providing an answer to the following question: "If you had $75 billion for worthwhile causes, where should you start?'' Whilst this is a remarkably broad question, CC aimed to produce a concrete ranking of options which could 'achieve good in the world' in the most cost effective way possible. Here, I will discuss the principal findings from the Copenhagen Challenge Paper for education, and discuss what this may mean for those interested in maximising their impact on human development with a budget under $75 billion .

At the risk of giving away the punch-line before the set-up, I will jump to what is, arguably, the most important sentence of the report: "The answer is almost certainly no.'' This is the paper's answer to the question of whether educational programmes can out-perform the best available investments in child health. Whilst this response may seem critical of educational-based investments, it is better interpreted as a positive sign for the effectiveness of investing in early-life health.

Even when placed head to head with the most effective programmes which education has to offer, health appears to come out ahead. This finding emerges from the Copenhagen Consensus' close analysis of three education projects all of which have been shown to produce benefits well in excess of their costs. Together these projects present a "compelling package of complementary [education] investments," consisting of:

cash transfers to families conditional on kids attending school,

the provision of updated information for parents about how much school can do to enhance their kids' future prospects, and

Both the costs and benefits of these programmes are quite varied. Perhaps the simplest programme, providing children and their parents with more information regarding the true benefits of education, has been shown to increase children's willingness to attend school, increasing completed schooling by approximately a quarter of a year, with the costs restricted to the dissemination of knowledge in schools (Jensen, 2010). At the other end of the scale, conditional cash transfers involve considerable cost: both in terms of monetary transfers and the monitoring of conditions (the well-known Mexican programme PROGRESA for example, cost the Mexican government $US 2.2 billion in 2004) (1) but they have been shown to lead to large increases in years of schooling, progression to higher schooling levels, and also smaller effects on health (in the short term), along with effects on household welfare due to increases in income have been demonstrated. Finally, school based health programmes, such as in-school de-worming initiatives, have been linked to lower absenteeism, and also create important spill-over effects in terms of reduced disease transmission. These in-school health-based treatments are often particularly low-cost, generally costing less than one dollar per student per year.

Despite reasonably compelling evidence for the positive effect of these programmes, dollar for dollar (or shilling for shilling, or peso for peso), they just couldn't match health-based interventions assessed using a similar cost-benefit approach. The most cost-effective programmes in health - nutritional supplements, anti-parasitics, antibiotics and vaccinations at early ages - seem unlikely to be surpassed, for the time being at least.

The Copenhagen Consensus agrees those who think that the path to development is educated and engaged citizens. It is almost certainly true that more education leads to higher wages, greater survival rates at key moments of life (such as during childbirth), and more educated future generations. But for those who want to invest in education who are primarily driven by concern for cost-effectiveness, the conclusion is that it is best not to invest in education directly. Rather you can have a bigger impact by providing the health that permits children to take full advantage of an education to improve their well-being.

The Copenhagen Challenge Paper for Education - What does it mean for fighting poverty?

Rob Wiblin

Earlier this year our Founder and President 

, which features hour-long discussions with experts in the development community. It is operated by the 

, whose research is also often worth reading. Dr Ord draws on his research as a philosopher at the University of Oxford to talk about consequentialism and other moral theories, and their implications for our responsibilities to those in need around the world. Secondly, Dr Ord explains his personal decision to donate a substantial proportion of his income to the developing world, and shares the factors that guide his choice of recipients

While the key ideas covered will be familiar to Giving What We Can members, I learned a number of interesting new details and responses to critics from listening to it. It is also a good general introduction to our philosophy - and one you can enjoy while commuting, cleaning or jogging - so be sure to pass it around to your friends as well.

The Moral Imperative Towards Cost Effectiveness►

Toby Ord on morality and helping others

Giving What We Can

If you've ever thought about working for Giving What We Can, now's your chance! We're looking for full-time staff and interns to help us grow GWWC and continue researching the most important issues in fighting global poverty.

We're hoping to hire a Head of Communications and/or a Head of Fundraising and External Relations. We're also looking for anyone with an interest in working or interning for us and valuable skills. To find out more, 

The first stage of the recruitment process is specially designed to be really quick- you'll fill in a little bit of basic information and then answer one question in 200 words or less. Everyone we've tested the question on thought it was pretty fun - although it does take a bit of serious thinking.

Our sister organisations are also recruiting. 80,000 Hours is looking for a Head of Career Research and Advice. Effective Animal Activism is looking for an Executive Director. The Life You Can Save is looking for a Director of Outreach. For more information on these other roles 

recruitment@centreforeffectivealtruism.org

Please note that the recruitment deadline has now passed.

We are Recruiting!

Michelle Hutchinson

As of today, Giving What We Can has been going for three years. In that time, we've seen some amazing changes. As well as wishing the organisation a happy birthday, I wanted to very briefly use this opportunity to take stock of just how far we've come in three years.

What started off as a small group of friends banding together to put their ideas of helping others into practice is now a major international organisation. Our members have dramatically grown in number - we now have more than 250, who have together pledged nearly $100 million to the most cost-effective charities! Our community has also spread throughout the world, with chapters on three continents, and versions of the site in German, Spanish, French and Portuguese.

This past year has been one of big changes. Having been entirely volunteer-run for our first two years, we got to the point where that was no longer viable, and over the summer took on staff for the first time (of which I'm very excited to be one!). That increase in person-power allowed us to launch a new website, including this blog, which aims to keep everyone up-to-date with Giving What We Can's research and progress in a way that we weren't previously able to. It also allowed for an increase in our research, with our research into health being updated, and an expansion into other areas, such as climate change and political change. The website aims to be a comprehensive resource for anyone who would like to help people in poverty as effectively as possible. By working together, we can encourage each other and others to continue to fight against poverty, as well as discover the best ways of doing so.

If you're member who has been with us since the beginning, I hope you're proud of everything your organisation has accomplished. If you've recently joined, I hope you're excited about the commitment you've just made, and about joining this thriving community. If you're one our volunteers, I'd like to express my heartfelt gratitude to you for all your hard work, without which the achievements of the last few years wouldn't have been possible. If you're using the website as a resource to learn more about poverty and how to alleviate it, I hope you find everything you need, and let us know if you don't. And if you're new to the website - welcome!

Happy Birthday Giving What We Can!

William MacAskill

As you may have noticed, change is afoot in GWWC.

In the past, we feel that our research has been lacking in a few ways, including: a) We haven't made it clear, publicly, what our methodology has been for assessing charities; b) We haven't made it clear, publicly, what role GWWC has, relative to other charity evaluators; c) The website has not been updated regularly, so there's been a disconnect between our research - what we've known - and what's been broadcast publicly; d) We have spent fewer man-hours on research than was desirable. To a large extent, this has been because, until very recently, GWWC was run on an entirely voluntary basis. Now that we have full-time staff, we hope to be able to rectify these issues over time.

As a first step, this blog post and the next will explain our methodology in a little more detail.

The crucial question for any charity evaluator is: what metric to use? GWWC is solely focused on finding the most 

 charities: that is, the charities that have the highest ratio of good produced per dollar given to the charity. Along with 

, we are the only charity evaluators that are solely concerned with cost-effectiveness so understood. (1)

Explanation of what 'producing good' consists of.

The grain of truth in that question is that different people's conceptions of the good vary. Some people think that scientific knowledge is of value in itself; other people think that scientific knowledge is only valuable insofar as it improves the lives of others.

However, the sum total of human wellbeing is a component of any plausible moral view, and, on most moral views, increasing human wellbeing is the main way to do good in the world. For these reasons, it's this aspect that we focus on. If this is not a component of your moral view, then our research will not be of use to you (but then, if you aren't concerned by increasing human wellbeing, it's unlikely that giving to global poverty alleviation is your top priority). In future posts, we'll explain how to measure increases in human wellbeing.

Good question. A mistake to avoid is to think of producing good as to mean 

 good. To illustrate, consider two charities that one could give to. Charity A will save 10 lives with every $10 000 given to it; Charity B will save 5 lives with every $10 000 given to it. However, if you don't give $10 000 to Charity A, it will fill up its room for more funding from other donors (who wouldn't have given at all otherwise). Whereas if you don't give the $10 000 to Charity B, it will not fill up its room for more funding from additional donors. In this case, you should donate to Charity B rather than Charity A: though you directly cause 10 lives to be saved by donating to Charity A, you don't really do any additional good, because those lives would have been saved anyway. In contrast, you do make a difference (of 5 lives saved) by donating to Charity B.

Making this more precise: what producing good means is as follows. First, you consider two possibilities: (i) where you give $n to Charity X; (ii) where you burn the money. Now think: how good is the world in which (i) you give the money? And how good is the world (ii) in which you burn the money? The amount of good you produce by giving $n to charity X is the difference in the goodness of the world in which you do give, minus the goodness of the world in which you burn the money.(2)

Importantly, the above method means that all consequences are considered. So 'good produced' does not just mean "impact provable in a few years"; long-run consequences are just as relevant to cost-effectiveness as short-run consequences. Nor does 'good produced' mean 'the effect on the direct beneficiaries of an action'; effects on third parties are just as relevant as effects on direct beneficiaries.

But surely you can never know what organisation does the most good per dollar?

That's exactly right - we'll never know what the best charity is. However, that doesn't prevent charity recommendations from being possible. It just means that we need to think in terms of expected good. To see this concept in action, consider two donation opportunities. Donating $10 000 to charity A will certainly save one life. Donating $10 000 to charity B will probably (80% likelihood) save two lives; but has some chance (20%) of producing no benefit.

In general, to work out the expected value of an action X, you look at each possible outcome that could result from X; for each possible outcome, you multiply the probability of that outcome occurring by the goodness of that outcome, if it does occur; and you then take the sum of this product across all possible outcomes. So the expected value of donating $10 000 to charity A is 1 life x 100% = 1; whereas the expected value of donating $10 000 to charity B is 2 lives x 80% = 1.6.

The concept of expected value becomes especially important in situations of great uncertainty, such as charity evaluation. Further posts will discuss in more detail how to correctly apply this concept.

In principle, we're open to evidence from any source, and if certain sources prove to be particularly reliable or unreliable, we will alter which sources we rely on. In the past, we've used the latest peer-reviewed research from health and development economics, information from larger cost-effectiveness-focused academic projects such as the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (2nd edition) and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, and on research from other charity evaluators, in particular from GiveWell. Like a growing number of organisations, we place particular weight on randomised controlled trials where they are available.

In the near future we will also begin publishing draft reports on topics and passing them around in order to to solicit additional information from experts and the public.

Sometimes, we have to rely more on 'back-of-the-envelope' calculations, and first-order research. This is especially true for some of the more conceptual, but potentially game-changing considerations.

What do you plan to work on, going forward?

We'll work on whatever we think will generate the most benefit with our additional research hours. This can include areas where:

We think that there are large gains from small amounts of work

We think there might be a game-changing or 'crucial' considerations, that could increase the cost-effectiveness of one's donations by several times.

Where we think we have particular skills that are lacking elsewhere.

Particular questions we will address in the future include:

Should one give now, or invest and give later?

This is an issue that satisfies (1), (3) and (4). It's potentially game-changing because it's at least plausible that one can have significantly greater impact with one's donations by investing one's money, and donating when we have better evidence regarding charity cost-effectiveness.

Should one give to 'meta-charity' such as charitable fundraising or cost-effectiveness research?

This is an area that satisfies at least conditions (1)-(3). The average return on investment from charitable fundraising is 5:1 - far higher than the typical market return on investment - and the highest-return fundraising can significantly outstrip that. This suggests that 'investment' in fundraising could be extremely cost-effective.

As well as funding fundraising, one could fund additional research. The current state of knowledge regarding cost-effectiveness is poor, and, in general, where knowledge is poor, the value of gaining new information becomes very high. In the case of cost-effectiveness evaluation, it also has great potential to affect large future donation streams.

What are the best sources of information out there to donors?

This is an area that satisfies conditions (1) and (2). There is a proliferation of charity evaluators out there - which should one trust, and why?

What are the most promising cause-areas for further research?

This is an area that satisfies (1) and (3); it's also an area that we feel it's important to explore in order to explain to givers why we focus on the areas that we do. Our primary question is: are there any cause areas that could plausibly contain interventions with expected cost-effectiveness considerably greater than developing world health? Examples of such cause areas include climate change, medical and other research, political lobbying and economic empowerment.

In the near future, we don't plan to do further in-depth evaluation of developing world health charities, as we've found GiveWell's research in this area to be of high quality, and we don't think that marginal research hours from us would provide much additional benefit. This kind of work does not appear to be our '

' in the charity effectiveness community. However, we will remain as an independent group in this area, and will check GiveWell's research before relying on it, as we would do with other sources of information.

Many of these questions will be tackled in a new format for us - 

A periodically updated list of possible research topics for new volunteers is 

Below are some of the people involved in our research team.

. As of late September, Rob has been our Director of Research. He graduated top of his year in Applied Economics from the Australia National University, and has worked as a research economist in several Australian Government agencies including the Productivity Commission.

. Sally is a graduate student in Development Studies (Research) at the London School of Economics. Prior to this, she read Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at Oxford, and spent a year working for NGOs in India, Cambodia, Malawi and the UK. She currently manages several volunteers in London, with a primary focus on micronutrients.

. Owen is a College Lecturer in pure mathematics at Oxford.

. Nic is a PhD student in machine learning at Oxford University. He graduated with First Class Honours from Cambridge, and received in 96% in his Master's degree in Applied Statistics at Oxford.

. Bastian is a postgraduate student in philosophy at Oxford University. He recently graduated top in his year with a double starred first from Cambridge, with one of the best undergraduate performances on record.

Michael Peyton Jones (intern and volunteer)

. Michael has background in computer programming, and recently graduated with First Class Honours from Oxford in Physics and Philosophy.

. Rossa is doing a PhD in development economics at the University of Pennsylvania, on a Fulbright Scholarship. He graduated with First Class Honours in economics from Oxford, where he won a prize for the best undergraduate thesis. He is currently taking time out from Giving What We Can's research to focus on his studies.

. Eliz is currently reading Clinical Medicine at Oxford University with an interest in tropical and infectious disease. During her preclinical studies she was awarded a Casberd Scholarship by St. John's College. She is currently investigating biomedical research and contagious diseases.

The research team also receives input from the Trustees and the Executive Director of Giving What We Can and external sources.

(1) GiveWell also places significant weight on 

 such as transparency and accountability, which they believe to be good proxies for cost effectiveness (2) Ignoring any effects from changing the amount of currency in circulation!

Researching What We Should

Krisztina Csortea

Since we published our post about developments in the field of malaria research earlier this week, the results of another interesting study have been made public. Nature magazine 

eported on Friday about phase III of the trial of a potential new malaria vaccine. Follow this link to 

New Malaria Vaccine Trial Provides Variable Results

Callum Calvert

Diseases in the developing world cause an enormous amount of suffering. Controlling them requires vast sums of money. Could funding the development of a vaccine, ending the problems caused by the specific disease once and for all, be an immensely cost-effective way to donate? The case for this type of charitable giving is obvious: giving money to people doing this research and development (R&D) will lead to an earlier vaccine-day (the time at which a working vaccine is ready for service). Bringing forward this point by even a day could prevent a serious number of DALYs from being inflicted. We've been looking at a few ways we could model the cost-effectiveness of funding a general vaccine development charity. This post will explore the first of these models.

The Sabin Vaccine Institute is a good example of this type of charity. Sabin is conducting non-profit R&D for a number of different neglected disease vaccines, but GWWC are particularly interested in their work on schistosomiasis (also knows as bilharzia, bilharziosis or snail fever), a vacc ine for which is scheduled to enter phase 1 clinical trials next year. The aspiration of this series of blog posts will be to get a reliable cost-effectiveness estimate of donations to this schistosomiasis vaccine development program.

To begin with we’ll assume that a vaccine will definitely be produced eventually, either by the program we donate to or by a different one. Then with any model there's a natural way to split the calculation up into 2 parts. Firstly we want to know just how much our donation will bring forward V-day. Secondly we want to find out how bringing forward this momentous occasion by 1 unit of time translates to positive effects in the developing world (measured in DALYs). Then we’ll combine these to get a figure for positive effect per donation.

So how much will our donation affect V-day? Say the charity is at a certain stage of its research, and plans to begin its next stage at some particular point in the future 

 they fill up a funding pot, of size G. If not, they will postpone to another date T years after the first date. We’re only concerned with whether my donation (of size D) makes the difference between the research going ahead and being postponed; so how effective we think it is to donate will depend a lot on how much we think the charity will fundraise elsewhere. If we think that they'll fill their pot and then some, or that everyone else will stay away, then it’s unlikely my donation will make much difference to the outcome. The problem of course is that we don't know how much everyone else is going to donate! To get around this we can try to estimate a distribution of how much we think everyone else will give in total. Plausibly, the total amount donated (excluding our donation) is distributed normally [The reason for this is that F is the sum of lots of other people’s donations. Assuming (for simplicity) that the individuals' donations choices are independent, the central limit theorem says that their sum will be approximately normal]. In that case, the probability that our donation will make a difference is P[G - D < F < G]; this is the probability that the total amount donated (excluding our donation) will be within D of filling the funding pot, so that our donation fills the pot (this probability is represented by the grey area in the graph below). So our expected time impact on V-day will be P[G - D < F < G]

p where p is the probability that the program successfully produces a vaccine (If the program fails to produce a vaccine then our funding has not brought forward the usage of any vaccine, and unfortunately, 

Now for part 2! There are 2 important positive effects which might come from having a vaccine available earlier.

Firstly people who are at risk from the disease will benefit from the vaccine being ready to use earlier. For the moment we'll assume that eradication is achieved exactly T years earlier if the vaccine is successfully developed without the delay in research due to lack of funding. (There are possible reasons why this might not be true, for example that the vaccine might not be the limiting factor in the eradication effort). Assuming that eradication is achieved eventually in all cases and happens in the same way whenever the eradication effort begins then by looking at the graph below we can see that our impact depends on the global burden of disease (DALYs caused by the disease annually) between T1, the time at which the vaccine will be ready if funding is reached, and T2, the time at which the vaccine will be ready if the next stage of development is delayed due to lack of funding. So if the GBD of the disease is B DALYs/year then the expected benefit of our donation is the expected time impact of our donation multiplied by B. This is B* P[G - D < F < G]

The second benefit is because the annual cost of controlling a disease could be massive. If we assume that the money being spent on control would otherwise be diverted to other health interventions in the developing world then potentially this would avert vast numbers of DALYs. Let the cost of controlling the disease be $C/year. If the average cost-effectiveness of health interventions in the developing world is X DALYs/$ then for each dollar diverted the benefit is C

X DALYs/year. Therefore multiplying as before gives expected benefit of our donation due to diverted dollars as C

Thus our first basic benefit estimate for a donation of size D to a vaccine development charity is the sum of the 2 benefits of our donation, (B+C*X)*P[G - D < F < G]

p DALYs. Assuming some fairly conservative numbers for the inputs and the parameters of the distribution of funding suggests that vaccine charities have the potential to be quite cost effective.

There is a other factors still to be taken into consideration. For instance, some vaccines are only partially effective and some diseases might be controlled by other means before a vaccine is developed. Allocating scarce biomedical researchers to vaccine research will take them away from other R&D programs. In future blog posts, as we explore some other models, we hope to find some ways to deal with these things.

How Can We Model Vaccine Development? 

Toby Ord

Several recent articles have reported on interesting developments in the fight against malaria. See below for a brief summary of these (with links if you are keen to do some further reading).

Efforts to eradicate malaria have significantly increased over the past decade. In 2011 alone, the three main donors, the WHO’s Roll Back Malaria Partnership, the Global Fund and the President’s Malaria Initiative, spent 

 on treatment and prevention. The increase in funding appears to have had a positive effect on the fight against the disease, according to WHO estimates there has been a 26% reduction in death rates since 2000. The UN has called for an even greater increase in funding. A $6.7 billion investment between 2012 and 2015 could prevent 640m malaria cases and 3m deaths. However, the prospects of malaria eradication, even given extra funding, might be less rosy than this picture suggests.

First of all, a recent study published in the 

 has found that the WHO’s estimates of deaths from malaria might be too conservative. Based on statistics gathered from 105 countries since 1980, the study found that malaria accounted for 1.24m deaths in 2010, nearly double as many as the 655 000 reported by the WHO. Even if the WHO did significantly underestimate the number of deaths caused by malaria, this of course doesn’t mean that efforts to fight the disease haven’t been successful, but it might lead us to question the amount of money donors would need to invest in order to eradicate it.

 in the Scientific American highlights a second potential concern. One of the principle ways of preventing malarial infections, bed nets, might not be as successful as it seems. Nets are treated with synthetic insecticides which repel mosquitoes and kill the ones that land. Bed nets also provide a mechanical barrier between the sleeper and insects. One of the reasons why bed nets work so well is that the periods of the day when they are in use coincide with periods when mosquitoes, including malaria carrying ones, are the most active as mosquitoes tend to be nocturnal. It has been known for some time that mosquitoes can evolve to resist the insecticide that the bed nets are coated with, however a recent study has found that some mosquitoes have started adapting their feeding times too. The study found that over a period of three years mosquitoes changed their feeding times from around 2 to 3 am to 5 am. The study was fairly comprehensive, it was conducted at two different locations in Benin and samples were collected before, during and after bed nets were distributed. What are the potential consequences of this for humans? Worryingly, people are more likely to be out and about during the new feeding times, and therefore are more likely to be bitten and potentially infected. On the other hand, mosquitoes that feed on humans during daytime are also more likely to be spotted by the victim. Furthermore, mosquitoes feeding at dawn might also be faced with new predators, such as frogs and lizards. Given the uncertainties surrounding the consequences of the findings of this study, bed nets still remain to be one of the most effective ways of fighting malaria.

Even if the mechanical effectiveness of bed nets is reduced by behavioural changes in mosquitoes, luckily bed nets are not the only card up the sleeve of those battling malaria. The BBC 

 last week that a recent study in the Lancet has come up with encouraging results when researching the effectiveness of a new anti-malaria drug scheme. The Affordable Medicine Facility for malaria set up by the Global Fund, subsidises drugs in 7 African countries. The study has found, that although the scheme had a low effect in Niger and Madagascar, it reduced the price of drugs in the other countries it was trialled in. 

, the scheme has been criticised, most notably by Oxfam, for limitng access and for diverting attention from more established methods of fighting the disease.

Malaria in the News

Michael Peyton Jones

Warning: We're now going to start assuming some serious statistics understanding! Not everyone will be able to follow the guts of the modelling, but the bottom line should still make sense. As before, we're using R to do most of the work.