Longview Philanthropy: Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund

What problem is the Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund working on?

A nuclear war, by accident, miscalculation, or deliberate use, could lead to as much carnage in the first few days as all of World War I or II. Billions more could be threatened by second-order effects: radioactive fallout, the collapse of critical infrastructure, and mass famine. The ensuing chaos could irrevocably destabilise civilization and send humanity down a dark path.

Thousands of nuclear weapons remain ready to launch in minutes. Recent trends are troubling:

• A conventional war in the nuclear shadow: Many experts believe the war in Ukraine marks the highest period of nuclear risk since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
• A looming three-way arms race: all nuclear arms control treaties between the U.S. and Russia have ended or been suspended without replacement. China could triple its arsenal to 1,500 warheads by 2035. All sides are developing new nuclear delivery systems which make inadvertent escalation more likely.
• New risks from new technologies: Advances in the speed and accuracy of weapons systems and increased reliance on digital systems creates entanglement between conventional and nuclear systems. Artificial Intelligence could further complicate the decision making. In a “digital fog of war” leaders will face high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, and may believe their only option is to act first. Technological change is not inherently destabilising but must be better managed to avoid false alarms and inadvertent nuclear escalation.
• Nuclear philanthropy is neglected: despite the extreme risk and the historic role of philanthropy in reducing nuclear risk, only about 0.005% of philanthropy focuses on this issue. In 2020, the largest funder in the field decided to wind down its work.

What projects does the Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund support?

The Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund will identify and support projects to help reduce the risk of nuclear war. In particular, the fund may support work aiming to:

• Increase understanding of the new nuclear risk landscape such as through historical analysis and forecasting.
• Identify effective risk-reduction strategies, such as efforts to avoid inadvertent escalation and approaches to managing the highest-risk weapon systems.
• Inform policymakers about how to tackle the persistent risks from nuclear weapons.
• Strengthen the capacity of the field by cultivating and retaining talented people and helping organisations meet their potential.

Why is the Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund one of our top-rated funds?

This fund meets our criteria to be a top-rated fund because it is managed by one of our trusted evaluators: Longview Philanthropy. Over the past year, Longview Philanthropy has worked with top experts in the field, both in and outside government, to identify under-resourced and high-leverage grantmaking opportunities that will reduce the nuclear threat. Their team brings over a decade of experience in leading nuclear grantmaking and 30 years of experience in arms control, non-proliferation, defence innovation, and emerging technology strategy.